The hottest industry tycoon on the way of non-ferr

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Industry bigwigs talk about how non-ferrous metals go in 2017

this year's non-ferrous market trend is very differentiated. Lead and zinc futures are rising hot. Like most black varieties, they are close to or have doubled. Aluminum prices also show an upward trend of oscillation, while copper prices do not show a decent rebound until after October

today's "non ferrous metals" special meeting invited Li Lan, founder of Beikuang Lilan, Wang Hongfei, manager of Beijing Aladdin aluminum business department, Xia Cong, senior analyst of Beijing Antaike zinc and lead department, and Li liangkun, head of bulk commodities Department of Guotai Junan Securities

Li Lan, founder of Beikuang Lilan, proposed that the policy proposed by trump during the election is beneficial to copper consumption in the long run. Its effect on copper consumption is mainly reflected in the upgrading of infrastructure. But in fact, the total consumption of electric copper in the United States is only about 1.8 million tons, so from the current situation of all aspects, especially the whole downstream industry, it is unlikely that there will be a significant increase in copper consumption in the United States in 2017

Li Lan said that when it comes to copper consumption, we must talk about China, because China now accounts for 40% - 50% of the total global copper consumption. Their expectation of China's copper consumption has been raised from 2.5% at the beginning of the year to about 5%. At present, few people use more than% in the pendulum tensile testing machine market

Li Lan analyzed that the pull of China's copper consumption first comes from the construction of infrastructure such as the key points for the operation of electric investment hydraulic universal testing machine. At present, we temporarily estimate that the overall electricity investment should have a pulling effect on copper consumption of at least 8%. For the household appliance industry, the air conditioning industry has entered a de stocking stage since 2014. Air conditioners are the major copper users in the household appliance industry. However, since July this year, the output of air conditioners has been not weak in the off-season. The overall growth rate from July to the second half of the current year is very strong

the corresponding whole automobile production also began to explode strongly in the second half of the year, so such an outbreak is more concerned about whether the whole tax reduction policy will expire by the end of the year. Therefore, under the comprehensive superposition of these factors last time, China's copper consumption this year is far better than expected

in 2017, infrastructure construction is still the most important part of stimulating copper consumption, but on the whole, the pulling range of this part will be reduced, but because the foundation in 2016 is already large, we say that the growth rate of electricity investment from January to October has exceeded 30%. Therefore, in 2017, although infrastructure construction is still the main driving force to drive copper consumption, we think its growth rate will be slower than this year

for the construction industry, the consumption of copper in the construction industry will still show a positive growth before the first half of next year, but in the second half of next year, it may not be as optimistic as you think. Because the sales area of new real estate has begun to decline gradually, and the completion rate is also declining gradually, it is likely to decline in the second half of next year, Therefore, the consumption demand of copper in the construction industry will also decline

in the past two years, the electrolytic aluminum market has begun to be hotly pursued by funds, from last year's sharp decline to this year's rapid progress, which is very eye-catching in the whole bulk commodities

Wang Hongfei of Aladdin Zhongying said that significant changes in fundamentals are still the fundamental factor guiding the price trend:

the strong rise in aluminum prices in 2016 was mainly due to the large-scale production reduction of the whole industry, which led to a continuous shortage of performance during the year. In the second half of 2015, aluminum plants had no choice but to reduce production under the huge losses, and there was no rush to resume production in the first half of 2016. After the rapid tightening of supply, the inventory of the whole industry fell sharply, For several consecutive months, it was announced that there was an emergency, and the real change in the pattern of supply and demand was the foundation of the rise in aluminum prices

the second is the impact of policy intervention. For the aluminum industry, the most obvious policy is the sharp rise in coal prices caused by the supply side reform, and the limited shipment of aluminum ingots caused by the transportation reform on September 21. The former runs through the whole year, raising the cost of electrolytic aluminum, and has a lasting and far-reaching impact on the market; The latter came very simply, directly blocking the shipment of aluminum ingots from the source, especially in Xinjiang, where a large number of goods were squeezed in the front end of logistics, and the spot market panicked, pushing prices to a new high

the third factor is the rising cost. As we all know, the price of alumina is like opening in the second half of the year. The price changes in real time. In December, the breaking strength and retention rate of breaking strength of alkali resistant mesh cloth have reached 3000 yuan, and the quotation of breaking strain in the North has continued to rise. Although the coal price is affected by the policy, the shortage of spot is still there, Therefore, the current coal price is in a state of high adjustment. So now the weighted average cost of the whole industry has risen to above 13000 yuan per ton, which was only 10500 yuan at the beginning of the year, and the cost has increased by 2500 yuan, which is still very considerable. In addition, the change of inventory is closely related to the trend of aluminum price this year, and it is also a key reference index to judge the price

Wang Hongfei predicts that the impact of the real estate policy in 2017 will gradually be reflected in the demand of the raw material market, and the growth of aluminum consumption in real estate may be limited, but the operational factors affecting the wear rate in other industries: consumption is still growing in an all-round way, especially the traffic aluminum consumption. In the macro aspect, the national regulation and control policies have shown results, and the supply side reform is directly beneficial. The implementation of the international statement of increasing infrastructure will also boost the demand for metals

but in the first quarter of next year, the consumption off-season is also the high-speed release period of output, and the sharp rise in inventory is a big concept event, so the pressure on prices will be more prominent. Wang Hongfei said that if there is no significant positive, the trend of aluminum prices in 2017 will be significantly weaker than that in 2016

among non-ferrous varieties, this year's zinc should be an absolute star variety. We can see that the overall price trend of zinc this year shows a unilateral upward trend, which has more than doubled from the low point in 2015 to the highest point this year

Antai Kexia Cong said that the basic logic supporting the rise in zinc prices must be the contraction of zinc concentrate supply:

first, let's take a look at the trend of global mine supply. 2015 should be said to be the largest year of capacity decline in the past 40 years, and the global zinc mines have decreased by nearly 800000 tons. The decline in mineral resources is mainly due to the closure of two major mines abroad and the possible closure of some mines affected by environmental protection in China. From the perspective of output, 2015 and 2016 should be a relatively high level in the historical decline of global zinc concentrate output

the output of the mine fell, and Glencore used the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to hype, which pushed the price higher this year. In addition, there was an unexpected reduction in production this year. The superposition of several factors led to a relatively large reduction in the global output of zinc concentrate

in addition, Xia Cong mentioned that from the demand side of concentrate, the global smelting capacity should still be increasing this year. In addition to the increase of China's production capacity, Korea's gaoliya lead also has a part of the increase of new production capacity, so the overall smelting capacity competition is still a certain amount, which also exacerbates the tension in the global zinc concentrate Market from another perspective

looking ahead, Xia Cong said that there should be a relatively large shortage of zinc concentrate in the world from 2015 to 2017. 2018 may be a turning point in the supply of raw materials market. In 2018, it will gradually turn into a small amount of surplus, and then the gap in raw materials supply will be made up

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