The industry said that the probability of oil price rising again in September or "diesel shortage" is not high
from 0:00 on the 10th, the domestic oil price of finished products will rise after experiencing "three consecutive falls". The price of No. 93 gasoline in most cities across the country will return to the "7 Yuan era" after experiencing a short "6 Yuan era". Industry insiders believe that at present, the domestic diesel market is in the transition stage from the off-season to the peak season, with sufficient market resources, and the probability of "diesel shortage" after the oil price rise is small; In the second half of the year, the overall trend of international oil prices was mainly downward, but it may continue to rise in the short term. It cannot be ruled out that domestic oil prices will rise again in SeptemberThe national development and Reform Commission announced on the evening of September 9 that the price of refined oil would be increased by 390 yuan/ton for gasoline and 370 yuan/ton for diesel from 0:00 on the 10th, which would be converted into the retail price per liter of No. 90 gasoline and No. 0 diesel (national average) by 0.29 yuan and 0.32 yuan respectively
this price adjustment is the second increase of the oil price after two increases and three decreases in the year. The price adjustment range is in line with market expectations. Previously, many analysts predicted that the range was concentrated in yuan/ton
9 is the 22nd working day after the last price adjustment day (July 11). According to the data released by the oil price system of Xinhua News Agency on the 9th, as of the 8th, the moving average price change rate of crude oil in the three places (Dubai, Brent and Xinta) was 7.28%. According to the current measures for the administration of oil prices (Trial), when the moving average price of crude oil in the international market changes by more than 4% for 22 consecutive working days, the price of domestic refined oil can be adjusted accordingly
since this year, international oil prices have risen first and then fallen, while domestic gasoline and diesel prices have "fallen for three consecutive times", and gasoline prices in many cities have fallen below 6 yuan on the 93rd. Chen Qing, an analyst at zhuochuang information, said: "after the increase, most cities will return to the '7 Yuan era' for No. 93 gasoline."
the probability of "diesel shortage" is small.
the traditional "golden nine and silver ten" peak season of the domestic oil market is coming. Insiders believe that the oil market will gradually shift from the off-season to the peak season, showing a steady upward trend, but the resource supply is still sufficient, and the probability of "diesel shortage" is small
"in the same period last year, there was a 'diesel shortage' in China. In 2012, there was a long-term and large-scale heavy haze weather 'mainly because at that time, the oil refining losses were relatively serious, while the chemical products were relatively profitable, and the refineries correspondingly chose to reduce the oil refining production. In addition, the overhaul of some refineries in the first half of the year had not been completed, the operation was insufficient, and the diesel supply was not enough, which led to the' diesel shortage 'phenomenon." Zhuochuang information refined oil analyst Liu Feng saidLi Hong, a refined oil analyst at business club, believes that the increase in refined oil prices will stimulate the production enthusiasm of refineries to a certain extent. At the same time, with the increase of large-scale infrastructure projects and the operating rate of factories and mines, the fishing moratorium has passed, and the busy farming season in the third autumn will also come. The market will gradually enter the peak season, and the operating rate of refineries will also be significantly higher than that in the first half of the year
according to the calculation of zhuochuang information analysis model, the refining losses of domestic refineries in the first half of the year will be alleviated to a certain extent after the price increase of refined oil products; After the price adjustment, the profit of Nanfang refinery decreased by 122% compared with that before the price adjustment
"in the past few months, the cash flow of our company has been negative. If the diesel oil is increased by 370 yuan/ton this time, the oil refining sector can basically turn losses into profits." Wang yuange, deputy manager of Maoming Petrochemical sales center, told, "in addition to the overall downturn of chemical products this year, we will slightly adjust the production structure in the second half of the year. In addition to completing the production plan of chemical products, we will increase the production proportion of gasoline and diesel to ensure the supply of refined oil."
Li Hong said that at present, the supply of market resources is still sufficient, and the probability of "diesel shortage" after the oil price rise is small. Considering the arrival of the "golden nine silver ten" market, the domestic refined oil market is expected to rise steadily
may rise again in September
affected by factors such as the escalation of European and American sanctions against Iran, international crude oil prices have rebounded strongly since late June, emerging from a wave of "V" market. As of the 7th, Brent crude oil prices rebounded 22.7% from the lowest in this round, and New York crude oil rebounded 20.3%
insiders believe that the current slowdown in global economic growth, record high crude oil inventories and the U.S. presidential election are still bad for the rise in crude oil prices, while the impact of the possible launch of qe3 in the United States and the U.S. - Iran relationship is also good for the rise in crude oil prices. On the whole, the trend of international oil prices in the second half of the year will be mainly downward, but may maintain an upward trend in the short term, It cannot be ruled out that the domestic oil price rose again in September
Yao Daming, Minister of oil products Department of Guangdong oil and gas chamber of Commerce, believes that at present, European and American countries are still unable to get rid of the haze of the debt crisis. In order to win votes in the U.S. general election, they will try to control the rise of oil prices. Moreover, the United States and Iran will still focus on sawing, and the main crude oil transportation channel, the Strait of Hormuz, will not be threatened. "In this regard, there is little support for the rise of crude oil, and the prices of bulk commodities such as international crude oil may be in a volatile downward channel." Yao Daming said, "but in the short term, September may continue to rise inertia."
Li Hong also said that if the international crude oil holding conditions for making various high-quality and high value-added alloy products continue to be boosted, it cannot be ruled out that the domestic refined oil market will continue to rise in September. Chen Qing continued to be cautiously optimistic about the trend of oil prices in the second half of the year. "It is expected that the average price of crude oil throughout the year, New York oil is in the US dollar and Brent oil is in the US dollar range."
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